COGNARA INFRASTRUCTURE
Know the Probability.
Not Just the Projection.
Project risk and investment intelligence for solar, wind, hybrid, C&I energy and Data Centre assets in India and the UK.
Powered by Machine Learning.
Calibrated on Real Market Data
THE CHALLENGE
Infrastructure Investment Decisions Are Still Being Made on Deterministic Spreadsheets.
What your current model cannot tell you
The infrastructure market is at an inflection point. Capital is flowing into data centres, solar, wind, and hybrid assets at a pace the market has never seen. The deals are getting larger. The structures are getting more complex. The market conditions - power prices, curtailment, regulatory frameworks, interest rates - are more volatile than at any point in the last decade. And the risk models being used to make these decisions are the same deterministic spreadsheets that have always been used. No simulation. No machine learning. No probability distributions.
The Deterministic Gap
Probability
It cannot tell you the probability of your DSCR falling below covenant threshold in year four. It gives you a number in the downside scenario. It does not tell you how likely that scenario is.
Distribution
It cannot show you the full range of IRR outcomes your asset could realistically produce. One number hides the variance. And in infrastructure, variance is everything.
Correlation
It cannot capture what happens when power prices spike, curtailment increases and interest rates rise simultaneously. It moves one variable at a time, but reality never does.
Intelligence
It cannot detect when market conditions have shifted into a new regime that changes the risk profile of your asset. Machine learning can. Standard spreadsheets cannot.
ASSET COVERAGE
Currently Modelling Across Four Asset Classes.
Data Centres
Power cost risk, utilisation volatility, C&I tariff trajectories, and interest rate sensitivity for Indian colocation and hyperscale assets.
Wind
Generation variability, state level curtailment patterns, O&M escalation, and refinancing risk for onshore wind assets across India's primary wind corridors.
Solar
Merchant price exposure, PLF variability, curtailment risk, and tariff revision uncertainty for utility scale and C&I solar assets across key Indian states.
Hybrid and Storage
Multi-technology revenue modelling, battery augmentation cost, peak arbitrage dynamics, and correlated risk across generation and storage components.
OUR OUTPUT
Complete Decision Intelligence Outputs
We produce institutional-quality risk analytics that no standard model generates. Every output is designed for a specific audience - investment committee, credit committee, LP reporting, lender due diligence.
IRR Distribution
The full probability distribution of equity returns across thousands of simulated futures. Median IRR. Probability of falling below hurdle rate. The range of outcomes in the best and worst scenarios. Not a single number. A complete picture.
Heat Maps
Two dimensional risk visualisations showing how your returns vary across combinations of key variables simultaneously. The tool institutional investors use to understand interaction effects between risks.
DSCR Fan Chart
Debt service coverage ratio at every year of the loan life with confidence bands showing the full range of outcomes from best to worst. Your credit committee sees exactly when covenant risk peaks and how severe it gets in tail scenarios.
Sensitivity Tables
IRR and DSCR outcomes under stress on each key variable. Designed specifically for lender and TEV advisor presentations where precise stress testing is required.
Probability of Default
A lender-facing framing of covenant breach probability adjusted for qualitative factors that quantitative models alone cannot capture - promoter quality, offtaker credit, regulatory relationships, and state support.
Stress Scenarios
Refinancing shock, implementation delay, grid penalties, and battery augmentation cost — modelled as discrete scenarios with full IRR and DSCR impact across all simulated paths.
OUR CAPABILITIES
What Powers the Intelligence
Cognara combines advanced analytical techniques with real market data to produce intelligence that standard financial models cannot generate.
Machine Learning Assisted Analytics
Machine learning uncovers key relationships across project variables, identifying market regimes, calibrating simulation parameters, and detecting how risk patterns shift over time.
Modular Decision Engine
The platform is designed to evolve. New data sources, additional asset classes, and expanded intelligence modules can be incorporated as project requirements and market coverage grow.
Probabilistic Simulation
Thousands of possible futures simulated simultaneously — not one forecast. Every simulation path reflects the correlated behaviour of real market variables rather than independent sensitivity assumptions.
Ongoing Monitoring
Project intelligence is not static. As market conditions, regulatory environments, and performance data change, Cognara updates the risk picture across the asset lifecycle.
Explainable Intelligence
Every output is traceable. Risk attribution identifies which variables drive the most downside, why the distribution looks the way it does, and where uncertainty is most concentrated.
Renewable Energy Native
Built specifically for renewable energy finance workflows, not adapted from generic analytics. Every calibration, every variable, every output is designed for the decisions renewable energy investors and lenders actually make.
WHERE COGNARA SUPPORTS YOU
Decision Intelligence Across the Project Lifecycle
Cognara supports key decisions from initial investment evaluation through to refinancing, providing a consistent analytical framework throughout the asset life.
01
Investment Evaluation
Assess project viability, model return distributions, and understand downside exposure before committing capital.
02
Financing and Structuring
Support debt structuring decisions with DSCR probability distributions, covenant resilience analysis, and financing scenario modelling.
03
Credit Decision
Give credit committees a complete probabilistic picture of project risk, not just expected outcomes but the full range of realistic scenarios.
04
Portfolio Monitoring
Track how project risk evolves as market conditions, regulations, and performance data change across the asset lifecycle.
05
Risk Reassessment
Reassess project risk at key milestones, operational changes, regulatory shifts, or market condition changes, to keep the intelligence picture current.
06
Refinancing
Model refinancing exposure and stress test equity returns under different refinancing rate scenarios before approaching lenders.
Cognara currently provides deepest support at investment evaluation, financing and credit decision stages. Portfolio monitoring and risk reassessment capabilities are available through ongoing engagements.
WHO WE WORK WITH
Built for Every Side of the Infrastructure Deal.
PE Funds and Equity Investors
You are buying an asset or evaluating a new investment. The developer has given you their model. Their base case looks attractive. But you need an independent view - one that uses machine learning and probabilistic simulation to give you the realistic distribution of returns, not just the scenario the developer wants you to believe in.
Our analysis gives your investment committee something they have never had before - not three scenarios but a full probability distribution of outcomes, independently produced, calibrated to current Indian market conditions, and designed to withstand the scrutiny of the most demanding LP.
Renewable
Developers
You are raising equity or debt for a merchant or C&I renewable asset. Your institutional LPs - development finance institutions, global infrastructure funds, sovereign wealth vehicles - are asking questions your current risk analysis cannot answer.
What is the probability IRR falls below hurdle? What does your DSCR look like in the worst ten percent of power price scenarios? What happens to your equity returns if refinancing rates widen at year seven? Our machine learning powered analysis answers those questions credibly and defensibly - in the format your LPs and lenders actually want to see.
Lenders and Transaction Advisors
You are structuring debt on an infrastructure asset or advising a client through a transaction. The standard TEV report gives you the base case and three sensitivity points. Your credit committee wants the probability of covenant breach by year. Your client wants to present something more credible than a deterministic sensitivity table to their lender.
We produce the probabilistic layer that makes both conversations better - at a fraction of Big 4 pricing and with faster turnaround.